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Old 03-29-2005, 11:34 PM
Dave G. Dave G. is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 616
Default Re: Is it healthy to be playing flush draws like this?

The turn raise is pretty bad. You force the field to face 2 big bets cold in a small pot. Most people will just fold.

You are a 4.2:1 dog to make your flush on the river, making your equity about 19%. For a raise to be correct here you need at least 4 opponents to call your raise, so that you are contributing only 20% of the money into the pot. (This is still slightly -EV but you can make up the bets on the river when you hit your flush.)

By blasting the field away with a raise you ended up contributing 50% of the money with only a 19% chance of winning. This is very -EV.

If you were last to act, and you had 4 people who called a bet before you, then a raise might be good. Here, you want to go for overcalls, so just call the turn.
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