[willie24]

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Do you really give a super-aggressive player credit for the boat?

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absolutely

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He could be betting a "blank" that's not a spade. He could be betting a third T. He could be betting that you'll fold. He could also be betting another J.

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of all these, I would say a "blank"/pure bluff is the only one that is even remotely possible.

remember he is a thoughtful, excellent post-flop player. my own reputation is tight, aggressive, and i very rarely fold on the river. put yourself in his shoes. would you ever raise with a jack here? would you ever raise with trips here. what do you put me on? isn't it fairly obvious that i have a flush here at least 80% of the time? if i dont have a flush, i certainly have a straight. do you really expect me to fold a straight or flush? even 1 in 20 times?

i can guarantee you that he doesn't.

I'm not sure the check-raise on the turn was right. i wouldve been angry with myself had it been checked through. but one advantage to the successful check-raise (besides getting an extra 1-2 big bets in the pot when i am probably ahead, and giving myself a chance to knock out a lone spade) is that i KNOW my opponents put me on a flush. this allows me to fold the river with probably 99% certainty that I am beat.

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Given your read on him, though, what two pair gets him to the river? Would he really play T9 or T8 from UTG2? for a raise?

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yes, my guess is that he would probably play both T9s and T8s from UTG2. the raise was behind him.

if i had to guess his hand though, i'd say chances are good he flopped a set