Re: Why is 10,000 hands too small?
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If we test the Null Hypothesis that our win rate is negative, we need only to average 0.03 BB/hand to consider our win rate significant. Applying the same reasoning to BB/100 hands, a win rate greater than 0.3BB/100 over 10,000 would be considered significant at the 5% level.
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This is where you are off by a factor of 10 as Paul said. 0.03 bb/hand = 3 bb/100 hands. Also, you should only take 1.65 standard deviations instead of 2 since this is a 1-sided confidence interval of 5%.
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