[wins_pot]

Tough spot.
You are way ahead or way behind.
It's very much dependent on your opponent, but I think you should lay it down.
The overbet itself often makes you change your read. example.....
Hand #4372836-18751 at Blundeston (No Limit Hold'em)
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Started at 24/Feb/05 21:54:14

Brandon78 is at seat 0 with $2662.50.
sillyhead28 is at seat 5 with $5796.
The button is at seat 0.

Brandon78 posts the small blind of $25.
sillyhead28 posts the big blind of $50.

Brandon78: 5c 8c
sillyhead28: -- --

Pre-flop:

Brandon78 raises to $100. sillyhead28 calls.

Flop (board: 8d 3h 4c):

sillyhead28 checks. Brandon78 bets $200.
sillyhead28 raises to $600. Brandon78 calls.

Turn (board: 8d 3h 4c 7s):

sillyhead28 checks. Brandon78 checks.

River (board: 8d 3h 4c 7s 3s):

sillyhead28 bets $3300. Brandon78 goes all-in for
$1962.50. sillyhead28 is returned $1337.50
(uncalled).

Showdown:

sillyhead28 shows 2c Kc.
sillyhead28 has Kc 8d 3h 7s 3s: a pair of threes.
Brandon78 shows 5c 8c.
Brandon78 has 8c 8d 3h 7s 3s: two pair, eights and threes.

Hand #4372836-18751 Summary:

$.50 is raked from a pot of $5325.
Brandon78 wins $5324.50 with two pair, eights and threes.
basically the thinking here was....
-if he has a 5-6 straight, he can't bet out the river. board is
paired, check-call is for sure the dominant strategy.
-he knows i didn't make a straight, b/c i'm not going to check a
straight on the turn given his pot-size reraise (and possible trips)
on the flop. therefore, if he did have a boat, there is no way he can
make a big bet on the river for value b/c it's not getting paid off.
-also, the overbet was weird. that said, i've seen it from others
when they have the goods.