Re: Boston +300 to Win AL East
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Nice analysis. I put a few bucks on Bos at +300 myself, I bet there's better prices out there though. What do you think the real number should be? I'll pull +250 out of my ass. I would say +210-230 but the boss is more likely to add yet another big name or 2 as the season wears on.
Shopping is real key on these futures. 5dimes has some nice deals. I locked up Minn AL central at even money there (down to -120 now). What do you think of that one? I don't believe the cle or det hype, and Chicago looks weaker to me.
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Minnesota at even money is a decent bet. The AL Central is very difficult to predict though. Literally any team can win it. Minnesota is the favorite, but Cleveland is a close 2nd.
I think Oakland to win the west at +537 is a great bet though. Most people are greatly overestimating the importance of their losses in the off season. The Angels are also very overrated. Oakland has alot of depth, which protects them against injuries.
I agree that even though PECOTA projects the Sox to win the division that you need significantly better than even money to bet on them. I would say +160 would be my break even point. If the Sox are ahead in mid to late season, no question Steinbrenner will make several moves to win the division.
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