[sloth469]

Fair enough it was lazy. You will be calling 3037 to win 5137. So you will be getting about 1.7 to 1 on the call. Now to figure out range of hands and assign likelyhoods of each.

Flopped set or straight are unlikely but possible I'll estimate the probability to be approximately 20%. You are behind this range, but have 4 full house outs v the straight and maybe 2 against a set.

Over pair, straight or flush draw I'll put about 70%. You are ahead of this range, but depending on his draw he could have quite a few outs and something like AT hearts is statistically close to even (not 100% on this don't have poker stove on this PC).

About 10% of the time it is a stone cold bluff (DH says 15% but with such a draw heavy board I'm more willing to give player semi-bluff credit).

Now to the laziness in my first post. The situation, we know very little about buy-in of tourney, # of players, relation to bubble, read on opponant, etc. While I'm ahead of the range I'm putting him on is it worth 3037 more chips to you in this situation?

I'm inclined to go here and push my small edge. I'm also an accumulator, while a survivalist may look at the same situation and decide it isn't worth it.

I guess that's why I took the easy way out and asked if the risk was worth the reward. But thanks for calling me on it.

-sloth