Re: I get to play post flop. . . .well, kinda
OP, FWIW, I only call on the turn here IF the board is unpaired (especially with someone left to act behind me.) The probability of a set completing to a fullhouse is like 1 in 3, so you want to make a stand IMO. I think this strategy will help you more in the future. So what do we think UTG has?
A 2 pair and Ace kicker?
B Queens over 8s?
C 8s over Queens?
D Queens and (a different pair - like pocket 9s)?
E Nut flush or lower flush?
D A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-rag
Why do you think villain bet the pot on the river? Why didn't he go allin, or bet less to draw in lesser hands? This standard potsized bet here leaves a lot to think about (especially that all he has is an Ace). His 70 chip bet on the turn indicated that he either has a flush (I doubt), a pocket pair (making 2 pair), trip 8s, or an attempted steal, IMO. And, if he had trip 8s it would seem reasonable to make a pot sized bet at a flush completing board. I don't think villain has a pocket Queen. Leaving 8s over Queens the only hand to worry about (and to a lesser extent, the Ace high flush). Because he played his hand from UTG, I think he had an Ace or pocket pair. Due to his position preflop, and betting, I really think he has 2 pair, with the Ace kicker, or two pair like Queens and Nines.
Maybe this is one of those scenarios where the advice "Better to fold a winner, than to play a loser" holds true. Unless I knew more about villain, I'm pretty sure I'd still fold here. It's hard to read the fish on $20+2s. Fish here could have played A8 or 78 (or 82 "sooted" for that matter) from UTG.
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