Re: Pumping the Turn
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didn't want to threebet this because that might have scared the TAG off unless he had AA-JJ,
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You have king-high, I don't get this.
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I have a two card flush draw to the second nut flush.
On the flop, there are 47 unknown cards, any 9 of which will give me a flush, 8 of which will not pair the board. I have a very strong draw and so many opponents I want it capped 4 ways right now. That is pumping the flop. I am 2.16:1 to make my flush by the river, so if I can get 3 bets in the pot for every 1 I put in, I am making .84 bets on every bet I put in.
Once I get to the turn, I have an OESD and flush draw, 15 total outs. There are now 3 aces(A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) and 2 nines (9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] & 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) that give me the nuts (5), then another 6 club outs (9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) to the second nut flush and 2 outs to a king high flush but also pair the board. (T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] & 6:club) Technically, I also have two overcards, but hitting either one would put three to a straight on the board and would be unlikely to win against the aggression that has been shown. I am 2.07:1 to have a two card straight or flush on the river, with three people still putting money in, I would have been making a bet for every one I put in. (Ignoring the fact A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is the nut flush and pairing the board would be bad) If MP2 still had money to contibute it might have been worth it, but without his money, the fact that A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] could be out there or the board pairs, it would be -EV, I think.
Vern
Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.
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