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Old 01-08-2003, 04:10 PM
sdplayerb sdplayerb is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 380
Default Re: $1000 buy in nlh hand at bellagio

Somewhat of a reiteration of what the other two said. Preflop bet seems too large. I would have done 1800 or 2400 so I could fold to an all-in reraise.

But when your have put in 4,000 here is what my thinking would be:
He probably has AA,KK,QQ,AK. 18 possibilites for an over pair, 16 for AK. (actually I think AK is even a little more likely since nobody has already bet so more likely no A was out there). so let's call it 50/50 AK vs overpair.

You aren't position on the blind structure so let's say it is 300-600 ante 50..i'm guessing 8 handed. So was already 1300 in there. Plus your 4000. Cost the SB another 9200 to get in there so there is 14500 for your 5500 call. 29:11 odds or just above 2.5:1

overpair is 4.5:1 favorite, you are about an 11:10 favorite vs AK. So the odds work out just about perfect to make this call, so you were pot stuck.

Other considerations however:
1. He could possibly have AQs. He seems tight, but this is possible with his large stack. He could also have TT. With these two small possibilities, it raises your EV a little.

2. Chips lost are worth more than chips won. The 20K chips you'd have and not worth 3.5 times as much as you current 5500. So on a dead even EV basis where you'd be out if you lose, but can still play if you fold, you may consider folding.
2a. How good is your small stack play? If you have made many comebacks, those 5500 chips are worth a lot more. If you tend to go out quick or are a much better large stack player than small stack (i for one am better small stack that large stack), then go for it.

2b. Is your entire table tight like that player? If so, seems more possible to comeback. However the huge stack does have position on you in this case so stealing is going to be really tough.

All said. I'd probably call because I'm screwed on position being my tiebreaker and if I win i'm in great shape..

So raise only 3x to 4x knowing that chipleader isn't coming over the top of people all the time so you can get away from the hand easily.

SD
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