Re: Set of Q\'s
Muck to the overbet.
K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])
What could he push with?
AJ
J9 -- highly unlikely
KK
TT
77
AKd/s?
KQ
KT
It is much more likely that villain would push with AJ or KK here than any of the other hands he might hold
you have ~350 left and there is 130 in the pot therefore you have to think that he has TT/77/KT/KQ/AKs more than 3 times as often as when he has AJ/KK (*I didnt adjust for the chance that you are behind and come back to win)and I would be willing to bet that he shows you AJ or KK here much more than half the time.
I think that this is a simple case of not being able to get away from a big hand when you know you are beat.
From the villains perspective this is just another example of why it is great overbetting with the nuts (especially here when a spade or diamond will kill your action)
-Steve
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