Re: Pocket 3s
I'd call the bring-in on 3rd, and might even complete to drive others out. Since you didn't complete, though, I'd fold on 4th. You haven't represented the strength on 3rd by completing to make people think you've got a hand, and you know at least one of your A's is dead, so you're calling into a family pot with a pair of 3's and not many cards out there that improve you to a winning hand. It looks like a long term -EV play to me.
I like the raise on 6th. The only way you're behind is if the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] plays split A's or made flushes very strangely.
7th street: he either needs a diamond or the case A to beat you. There's no way he can know from your board that you have trips. He checked to start the action on 7th. If he has two pair, he'll call. Likelihood of him improving to two pair, or already having had it on sixth, is much higher than likelihood of improving the four flush or to trip A's, so I think it's a good value bet for you to make.
|