View Single Post
  #7  
Old 12-18-2002, 06:41 AM
polarbear polarbear is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 41
Default Re: Am I a wuss? -- Part II

Turn - Should I have re-raised here? The only two hands that have me beat are AQ and 89; there are several other hands that I beat which might call the flop and check-raise the turn, such as trips, two pair, or a straight flush draw.

The SB called 2.5 bets cold preflop, unless he's really loose, he doesn't have K7, J7, or 107. It is true that there are lots of hands that you can beat, however, when you take into account that you have 2 of the kings, and there are is no A/Q/9/8 on the flop, your odds don't look nearly as good.

(Flop Kd-10d-7s Turn Jh)

K-J, 3 ways (would he play KJ?)
K-10, 3 ways (would he play K10 and then slowplay the flop?)
J-10, 9 ways (would he play J10?)
J-J, 3 ways
10-10, 3 ways (would he slowplay the flop?)
7-7, 3 ways (would he play 77 and then slowplay the flop?)
Qd-Jd, 1 way (would he play QJs?)
total between 3 and 25 ways

A-Q, 16 ways
Q-9, 16 ways (would he play Q9?)
9-8, 16 ways (would he play 98?)
total between 16 and 48 ways

You collect from 2 players if your hand is best. Your outs to improve if your hand is not best are approximately nullified by EP's outs to improve if your hand is best. But, if your hand is not best, you have to call a 4-bet if SB has AQ. So, you need somewhere close to a 50% chance of having the best hand to make reraising correct.

That looks unlikely, so I would say to just call the turn. Raising, and then folding on the river if you're 4-bet and you don't fill up seems like a bad idea because it's extremely dangerous.
Reply With Quote