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Opponent just sat down. No notes. Is this a proper value bet, or might I be just as well off shoving it all in since he is shortstacked?
Party Poker Pot-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed)
converter
saw flop|
<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>
BB ($1901.25)
UTG ($190)
MP ($2476.5)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($1167)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($1714.75)</font>
SB ($1487.5)
Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, CO calls $10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $45</font>, <font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, CO calls $35.
Flop: ($105) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $102</font>, CO calls $102.
Turn: ($309) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $306</font>, CO calls $306.
River: ($921) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $350</font>.
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I am made very uneasy by this hand. I see these hands are perfectly reasonable for the opponent to have:
44, 22, 77, plus 88,99,TT-AA
You are ahead of the first three. The middle pocket pairs would have almost definately raised at some point to "protect" their overpair. This seems like the standard play with 88 or 99. That did not happen. I think the villan is on a set, or perhaps aces. I also do not consider him shortstacked -- so much so that you cannot realistically call a raise yet your bet on the river completely pot sticks you.
I cannot easily imagine a sane player calling this bet with any hand that you beat.
EDIT: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is another possible, yet somewhat more unlikely holding.