Re: Three Left - math
This is not a clear-cut case. It's hard to do without blind size and exact stack sizes, but I'll give it a shot.
We'll have to do a lot of assuming.
First, I'll assume $20 for 3rd, $30 for 2nd, $50 for 1st.
First, let's go over a call.
Let's assume you KNOW he has what he had, making you a 2:1 favorite.
(1/3) of the time you lose and end up with $20.
(2/3) of the time you win. You double up through the big stack and now have twice as many chips as him. We can assume, then, that you win heads-up (2/3) of the time and win $50. (1/3) of the time you lose and end with $30. (50*2/3)+(30*1/3)= $43
So on the call you get an EV of (20*1/3)+(43*2/3)= $35
For a fold...
We'll assume the 3rd guy gets knocked out. You win (1/4) of the time and lose (3/4) of the time.
(50*1/4)+(30*3/4)= an EV of $35
I may have made a mistake somewhere, but as you can see, this is not an EASY call. In fact, you can not tell your opponent has undercards. If he has a pair or *gasp* AA or KK, you are losing money by calling.
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