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Old 02-27-2005, 03:49 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 598
Default Re: Newbie hand, huge hand, huge pot

Bremen - Wow! Nine out of ten opponents have seen the flop for a double bet each and you have flopped a set of kings plus an open ended straight draw with only one low card on the flop. Sweet!

As an aside, with your hand you're not going to see a king on roughly seven out of eight flops. You have a playable starting hand, but mainly because of the low frequency of favorable flops, not a great one.

[ QUOTE ]
Thinking about this after the fact I have the current nut high, with the nut st8 draw. I assume I should raise at this point?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily. It depends on how your opponents would react to the raise. If your opponents would all stay aboard for the double bet, then obviously the double bet would be a good idea.

But often they won't.

And even if they do stay aboard, you'll often get less out of them on the third and fourth betting rounds when you raise on the first or second betting round. (Depends on your opponents).

On the other side of the balance, you do have a better chance of winning against fewer players, because your flopped set of kings may hold up, unimproved. In addition, especially if your opponents are all oblivious to the raise, you can get an extra small bet out of each of them on the second betting round.

In my mind, whether to call or raise on the second betting round is not a clear cut decision in your particular circumstance. Without as much already in the pot, I think I'd just call, but with so much already in the pot, a raise to possibly limit the field is very tempting. And if a raise would not limit the field, then a raise is clearly in order. You have a very nice flop fit.

If SB had bet and the four intervening players called, then a raise would clearly be in order. But after four checks and then a bet, an immediate raise to make it two bets to everybody is a completely different scenario.

Your hand, flopped top set, isn't good enough to slow play, so that you should bet if nobody ahead of you bets - but as it is, a double bet may cause an avalanche of folds. (I don't think calling here instead of raising is exactly "slow-playing," though in a way, I suppose it is).

At any rate, raising seems reasonable but not raising also seems reasonable. Raising might do better against one particular group of opponents while calling might do better against a different group of opponents.

I think you played fine here. With five opponents calling on the third betting round, you're getting enough fresh money from your opponents to have favorable odds to raise. If the board pairs, only quads will beat you, and the odds against that are roughly twenty to one.

(You do realize that with five opponent calling, a set of kings is not likely to hold up for high, but because of the size of the pot, you're probably stuck calling. Right?)

You have the nut boat on the river, with no low possible. Only quad fours will beat you, and that's not likely.

Just my opinion.

Buzz
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