[Buzz]

David - 1st betting round: There are going to be people who will think you should raise on the first betting round with this hand, but I don't think you should.

2nd betting round: You have a clear call on the flop.

I think you take the betting rounds separately in terms of figuring odds, but let's look ahead to the river before we do that. There are 990 two card combinations possible on the turn and river. Of these (my count might be off a bit here or there):
• 59 get you the whole pot
• 254 get you half the pot
• 179 are enigmatic in that they make your spade flush or straight but also pair the board or enable a better straight. Let's suppose that you see the showdown with these and they win 20% of the time. (Maybe that's a bit low, but I'm going to count all these wins as scoops rather than counting some of them as worth only half the pot - I think this will get us close enough).
• 498 are clear misses.

It's difficult to know what the whole pot will be worth at the show down when you are faced with the bet on the second betting round. At this point in time, there have been no raises. If you assume there will be no raises and that there will be a gradual attrition, perhaps it will cost you three small bets to see the river, and perhaps you will win 20 small bets when you scoop and 7.5 small bets when you split. This isn't what actually happened, but it might give you a very rough idea of what to expect in a passive game.
+20*59/990 = +1.192
+7.5*254/990 = +1.924
+20*179/990*0.20 = +0.723
-5*179/990*0.80 = -0.723
-3*498/990 = -1.509

That's very crude, but if you total, you can see that you'll make more by playing the hand in a passive game with this many opponents than you'll lose.

If you figure in a more aggressive game it will cost you twice as much to see the river, and that you have the same attrition rate as with the passive game,
when you scoop, you'll win +34 and when you split, you'll win +12. But it will cost you 6 to see the river instead of
3. In that case,
+34*59/990 = +2.026
+12*254/990 = +3.079
+34*179/990*0.20 = +1.229
-10*179/990*0.80 = -1.446
-6*498/990 = -3.018

Again, that's very crude, but again, if you total, you can see that you'll make more by playing the hand in an aggressive game with this many opponents than you'll lose. Indeed, it looks as though you profit even more in an aggressive game than in a passive one - but keep in mind this is a crude estimation and does not take into account the increased tendency of opponents to fold in a more aggressive game. (When you are primarily drawing for the nut flush, you want your opponents still in the hand so as to pay you off when you make a winner).

At any rate, you should see that this flop, even with two low cards, is a favorable drawing flop for your nut flush draw. Knowing this, you should not be intimidated by the raises. (But that is not to say you should be raising yourself, lest you cause your future possible customers to fold).

But back to the immediate odds consideration on the second betting round. The way to look at this bet is as one transaction, kind of like you look at a lottery bet. If you lose, you can make another bet the next day (or not).

With your hand, and after this flop, there are eight non-pairing spades plus three nines, a total of eleven cards, that leave you with the nut high after the turn. (Don't think about what can happen on the river - that's an issue for the third betting round, not the second).

There are also seven cards that can pair the board without making a spade flush for you on the turn. You'll be folding if any of them appear. (A cardinal rule is not to draw for a flush when the board is already paired). The eight of spades is a tough call; what to do depends on your read of your opponents.

The other 29 cards are blanks. What to do if any of them appear on the turn depends. But that's an issue for the third betting round - not the second betting round.

You have 11 favorable cards and the rest are either unfavorable or blank. The odds against your catching one of the 11 favorable cards on the turn are 34 to 11, roughly three to one. You need to average winning 3.1 times what you invest on this betting round to have favorable odds to play.

At the point when the betting gets to you the first time, there is no indication of a raise behind you and there are already 9 small
bets in the pot. You're getting 9 to 1 odds for the whole pot, plus implied pot odds. You're only getting 4 to 1 pot odds for half the pot, but with implied pot odds, those are enormously favorable too. The combination of those odds in the correct approximate proportions probably makes your pot odds about 5 to 1 overall, with your implied pot odds even higher.

You thus have enormously favorable odds to call a bet after this flop. You don't have to know what the odds are - just that they are very favorable. And if there's a raise behind you, you'll have even more favorable odds to call the raise. And we've looked ahead and seen that you'll probably make more money if someone raises than if they don't - so that you don't care if someone behind you raises or not.

But raising here yourself, rather than calling, involves different considerations. In my humble opinion you should not generally raise here yourself.

At any rate, you clearly have odds to call, and then you clearly have odds to call the raises.

Third betting round: You have the same eleven outs as on the second betting round, but now, because the turn enabled low, you're playing for half the pot. But you were 4/5 (or whatever) playing for half the pot anyway. Odds against you catching one of your eleven cards for half the pot on the river are 33 to 11 or exactly 3 to 1.

What that means is you need to win three times your investment on the times that you win to justify drawing. At the point when the betting gets to you, you're getting 6.25 to 1 half pot odds to call a single bet. If you could foresee the betting getting jammed on the turn, you'd still be getting almost 3 to 1 odds for half the pot, and if you include implied pot odds, better than three to one. Ironically, you'll average making more money if it gets jambed here, even though your odds will be worse.

At any rate, you just call the initial bet and then call the raises. Fine.

4th betting round: You have the nut straight, but someone else (or maybe more than just one opponent) very well might have the same high hand. You can't knock out another nut straight, but by jamming you might knock out a non-nut high. I'd just call, rather than raising.

Just my opinion.

Buzz