[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
i look at the board, look at the action and say, "hes got AcKc" and 3bet, both call.

It's fun to put people on exact hands, and it can be very gratifying when you nail it on the head, but it's not neccessarily good poker. It's better to say, "he's got a hand he can check raise with." Is it a made hand? A come hand? Total BS?

If you put opponent's hands into categories, you'll do better on the river. Once you put him on AcKc, you'll correctly observe that it's unlikely he has it exactly, incorrectly assume that if he doesn't have it you'll win, and kid yourself into calling.

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i didn't go into my whole thought process on the turn for everybody...there was a good 5 seconds that passed between the checkraise and my 3bet...but in the end, i said "hes got AcKc."

so here was they process: villian 3 bet preflop, he's a bit loose but after a raise and a cold call, this indicates a strong holding. then on the flop with all that action i felt he had either AK, or KQ, or AA, or KK. if he had KK, i felt it was likely he'd bet out the turn since it seems the caller was on a draw so he'd bet, id raise and he could 3bet and gain a great deal of money on the turn. when he checked and i bet and THEN he raised, i looked at the board, replayed the action, and concluded that he must have improved somehow on the turn. that club brought the improvement, therefore he likely has a flush draw to go along with his made hand. Therefore he likely has AcKc (or KcQc, but i thought that was a little less likely given the strength with which he played it). Therefore, my play is to 3bet and charge him more. he smooth called it quickly, indicating i was likely correct. on the river, he bet out when the club hit instead of check calling. he opened himself to a raise that, if he was beated, he would be hesitant to call. i had done NOTHING in that hand but raise. why would he think i'd stop now? from HIS vantage point, he can't see that i can see that the club helped him so i might raise and he can 3bet. he wants to get value from his now super made hand that he knows beats mine and with 2 callers there he may also think i MIGHT check behind. therefore, i felt virtually certain he had AcKc.

again, i was wrong on the exact hand, but clearly correct in my analysis. yet, i made the wrong play. call it a thinking player's tilt.

-Barron