[TheAmp]

If you fold, you will be short stacked with 400 chips and small blind next hand. Most of your equity in this case lies in the hope that big stack (Carlos) will beat sungaria in this hand.

Sungaria is a big favorite here, since she bet all her chips on the bubble after a big stack raise, and given the fact you are about to bust. Also, Big stack will not call 100% of the time. If he has an Ace he should call. If he raised with rags or a low pocket pair he should probably fold. If he does call, it is fair to asses his winning chances at around 30%. Thus, if you fold you will win third place less than 30% of the time because Carlos will not always call. Even though you will still have a few chips left, your ITM odds will be slim.

Now, lets analyze what happens when you call.

What does Sungaria have? Most likely QQ-AA (lets say 85% of the time) and sometimes AK (15%). If you call, big stack will fold most of the time, and even if he does call, your winning chances will still be around 19% if sungaria has high PP (see step 5 post with 77 hand from yesterday or a day before that). On average, you're winning chances are close to 24%. But when you do win, you will have 1200 or 1800 chips (depending on big stack call or fold)- you will have folding equity and a shot at the higher prizes.

Call.