[GrekeHaus]

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I know that in all online communities the veteren and long time posters get tired of answering the same quesitons and "use the Search noob" is a pre-determined phrase on their keyboards..., and I think in many situations this reponse is sufficient or required. Specifically when the OP asks a generic "Help me find the answer to generic question XXX". However, in this case it is obvious that the OP has put some tought and work into analyzing his statistics and is looking for 3rd party insight to his thoughts. Reading between the lines a little tells any reader that it is obvious that the reader is not looking for long-term win rate judgement, but more comments on how he is analyzing his own data and ideas on other things he can do to improve his analysis.

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You pretty much hit the nail on the head here. I'm not looking for an actual "what is my true winrate?" here. I've done the math before, and even being the relatively tight player that I am, with small standard deviation (13 BB/100), it would take me over 6 million hands to know my true winrate +- 0.1 BB/100.

What I was really looking for was an critique on my analysis that the % of hands won is likely a source of the recent downswing. More or less, is it reasonable to assume that I will generally win more times when I play this many hands?

Obviously, it takes a good number of hands to know your true winrate, but it takes a significantly smaller sample size to determine other things, such as standard deviation and (I believe) % of hands won.

Regarding some of the questions.

I have considered the fact that I've been playing with generally better players at this level, but I thought this would be somewhat covered by the fact that I've actually gone to showdown more over this stretch (and more in general) than I did at $3/6. My thoughts on this were that if people weren't paying me off with weaker hands, my WtSD numbers would be lower as would my Won $ at SD.

As for my big pairs, they've held up fairly well, although I haven't gotten them as much as usual

AA: 86% (1 out of 233 hands)
KK: 69% (1 out of 298 hands)
QQ: 63% (1 out of 288 hands)
JJ: 43% (1 out of 210 hands) <--I'm actually down slightly with JJ

My aggression factors are still on a par with what they normally are. The river is lower, usually it's around 1.6. This is probably due to less value betting since I'm against better players, the fact that I'm winning less often anyway, and possibly a little fear which has been put into my by the bad streak.

Flop: 3.11
Turn: 2.87
River: 1.25