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Old 02-21-2005, 07:01 PM
Spekkio Spekkio is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 30
Default Re: Standard Deviation/Win Rate

Ok, here's the thing. Whenever you hear anyone say "the average for x is y" the FIRST thing that should come to your head is "what's the standard deviation?"

Here's why:

Take baseball for an example. We have two .300 hitters. One person hits .400 in April, .200 in June, .500 in July, .100 in August, so on and so forth...in the end his average is .300.

Other player hits .290 in April, .310 in June, .320 in July, .280 in August, .300 in Sept.

The first person has a much higher SD, so you'd probably want the second person on your team (god forbid the first hits a bad streak when it's really important).

So in poker, your win rate (or losing rate) could be 5 bb/hour. This can be accomplished steadily (with a low SD) or with a lot of all-in swings and reloading when you go broke (high SD). The same goes for losers...you can lose all your money gradually (low SD) or in big swings, even though you do have some victories (high SD).

Most losers have a high SD. That's what keeps them in the game -- the fact that they have had winning sessions.

So, to take that into the stack size you need...

Do you walk away from each session with a couple bucks in your pocket? Or do you sometimes walk away with a ton of winnings, and other times walk away broke?
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