Re: How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)
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Just about the folding ICM here.
Fold -> SB folds: .314
Fold -> SB pushes -> BB folds: .316
Fold -> SB pushes -> BB calls -> SB wins: .350
Fold -> SB pushes -> BB calls -> BB wins: .338
Fold -> SB completes -> BB pushes -> SB folds: .315
Those aren't all the possibilities obviously, but I think they are the most common, plus raises that aren't pushes will often end up all-in anyway.
I don't really have any strong basis for weighting these outcomes, but here's a SWAG:
.314 x .6 + .316 x .18 + .350 x .06 + .338 x .06 + .315 x .1 = .318
Not a huge difference, but using your calcs it then changes the percentage of times SB and BB need to fold from 74.5% to 77.6%.
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I didn't consider SB and BB calling just to simplify my calculations. But you're certainly right--considering that they both might call make this play even more dicey.
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