[Lmn55d]

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Do you really think most players 3-bet preflop w/AJ? I would discount that hand also...and I would discount AJ/AT/KQ way more than 50% as well...meaning Hero is likely far behind on the turn, and desparately in need of hitting his gutshot.


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Uh...how does this make hero likely further behind on the turn? Out of AJ, AT, and KQ, hero is behind 14 combos and ahead of 6 combos. So discounting these more makes him *more* likely to be ahead than I calculated in my original analysis, not less likely as you seem to imply. Actually, we should discount AT and KQ more than AJ, making him even less of a dog on average. Even if we don't discount these he should still call down.