Re: AA, scary board
The turn fold is not obvious at all. If I played this way up to the turn, I would call down. The "likely holdings" that Argus listed for this player are not equally likely, especially when there are 2kings on the board:
QQ : 3 Combos
JJ: 3 Combos
AK: 4 combos
AQ: 6 combos
AJ: 6 combos
AT: 8 combos
KQ: 6 combos
KK: 1 combo
AA: 1 combo
Now the thing is most players will not 3bet KQ/AT as often as they will AK, AA, etc, so I would discount each of these hands by 50%. Also, TT and 99 are pretty common 3betting hands and there are 6 combos of each.
If what Argus wrote is actually his range of holdings, then you are ahead of 12 and behind 25, or about 2:1 against you. It costs you (probably) 2BB to call down to win a pot of 6.5 BB, so you are getting 3:1 to call down.
|