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Old 02-13-2005, 02:00 PM
bigredlemon bigredlemon is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 544
Default Re: Fold it here? Overpair JJ vs. all-in raise and call

No real reads, but there's usually quite a bit of PF action at the table so far, so QQ and KK would likely have re-raised. AA is the only overpair that I considered likely.

UTG+1 has limped in twice so far, once folded on flop, and once checked it down with a pair of fives. Haven't noticed much from MP.

I followed my gut and ended up calling. Barring gut reads, I'd want to lay this down. I felt I was most likely against a set and a draw.

I think it's a set because:
I raised PF, so I'm likely betting either a made hand or else a draw to a top pair. I'm not going to be raising PF with JQ, and I'm not betting top set that aggressively. A lower set would want to re-raise me all to kick out MP, who might have called with JQs hoping to hit big. A low set would want to kick out any straight draws and go heads up with me, as dead money. It'll be 95% chance to win 1000 vs 70% chance to win 1500. The latter is slightly more EV, but the former is clearly the best move in an SNG. UTG's limp/call definetly looks like a low pair. A limper /w a weak ace or two braodways would probably fold to a raise fearing being dominated. He's also shown to be willing to play low pairs once before. So that's why I think it's most likely a set if he has it. I can't see him limping in with AT or KT, then calling a medium raise.

Even if I'm beat, i'm not dead. I still have a backdoor straight draw, amd a draw to the nut quads on the river.
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