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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed)
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Villain is largely unknown. He's shown both pre- and post-flop aggression in the hands I've seen him play, betting into a few scary boards... but I don't know whether he had the goods.
Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">
2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, CO calls.
Flop: (6.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds, CO calls.
Turn: (4.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero ???
These sorts of situations come up a lot -- even semi-aggressive players seem to like to take a shot on the turn. The board isn't scary, but raising risks a 3-bet if Villain has a strong hand, and he might give up if he's bluffing. On the other hand, if he has a good but not great hand I'm going to get an extra BB and possibly discourage people from taking liberties on the turn.
Is it better to just call down from here? Do we lose more from action or inaction?
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I think I threebet, lead the turn if he doesn't cap, call a river raise, and painfully call down if capped on the turn.
I think another important thing to remember here is that people like to wait until the turn to show aggression with almost any made hand against a preflop raiser, it's the "he always has overcards" syndrome I think. I think you're seeing AQ/KQ very, very often here, and you have a handful of outs against a random two pair hand.
Maybe I underestimate people, but until I'm shown otherwise, I wouldn't expect it's very likely for an unknown to run a delayed bluff here, so I don't think that calling down so as to
maybe get another bet out of a bluffer is as important as getting the value that I personally believe is probably there.
Now, the problem with my analysis is that I'm basing this on an "unknown" in a game I haven't played for months. This is my line against an "unknown" in my games, but that doesn't mean it's anywhere near correct here.