From Daliman:
[ QUOTE ]
Unless the initial raiser was pushing tons, I would fold this with few reservations. You are getting called 90% of the time, and are almost always going to be racing at best. The BB may have to call here also if you fold, as he will have only 870 left after this hand.
Not that tough a fold at all.
[/ QUOTE ]
I think you are definitely underestimating the fold equity here. For one thing, this is a 10+1 tournament. Not many people at this level have the understanding of pot odds that you do. The villian min-raised with this hand, so I think there's a good chance he'll fold. Plus the villian can see for himself that storden is getting low on chips.
Let's do the numbers from the villian's point of view.
If he folds to the raise:
Storden 870
zonkers8 2540
giants52 2265
hero 2325
total prize pool for zonkers8: 29.79%
if he calls and wins
storden 870
zonkers8 4865
giants52 2265
total prize for zonkers8: 41.39%
if he calls and loses:
storden 870
giants52 2265
zonkers8 1215
hero 3650
total prize pool for zonkers8: 20.05%
So, if we assume that he has a 50% chance to win, then he should call, but just barely:
29.79 vs. (41.39 + 20.05)/2
29.79% vs. 30.72%
Given that:
<ul type="square">[*]This is a 10+1 tournament[*]The villian min-raised[*]The villian has been raising almost every hand[*] The villian can see that one opponent is seriously short-stacked[*]Calling is not that much better than folding, by my calculations[/list]
Then I think that the hero has pretty decent fold equity here. Much better than 10%, I would say.
As Lorinda said in a different post, "Think about what your opponent will do, not what he should do."