[Wayfare]

I think your turn bet has very low expectation the times you are ahead (you even admit yourself that it is zero), and gives yourself a remote (but very serious) possibilty of being bluffed out with the best hand. Let's say 15% of the time he chooses to raise -- you cannot call.

This is clearly a way-ahead-way-behind scenerio, and the risk of being played back at is greater than the need to protect against two outs at a maximum. You can give the guy a 1-20 shot to catch up to prevent this.

Also, you can't discount the possibility that he will put YOU on a draw and call a river bet on the end. In my experience many opponents will auto-call a reasonable river bet when the action has proceeded in the way I suggest in my previous post.

I really do not think it is close.