[Wayfare]

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2/5/5 Motorcity, I'm running the table as we are pretty short handed, 5 or 6 handed and I'm the only one that seems to have a spine so far. I'm making a decent amount of money raising with any two playable cards from any position and potting the flop. Anyway I have about 1300 in front. Villian is an old guy who DOES NOT PLAY ANY HANDS. When I say he doesn't play any, I mean he has played 1 hand and probably sat 8 orbits in the last few hours. He gets up everytime the BB comes around to him, disappears for 20 minutes and then comes back. It's the most ironic thing I have ever seen. He sits down with a nice collection of purple/black/green chips, stacks of them, and doesn't ever put them into play. He is a rock of all rocks, I can't figure him out since I have seen him play 1 hand with no showdown. I'm assuming he must be the nittiest of nut peddlers, he is so straight forward it's written on his face. He could just be waiting for someone to get it all in with preflop, but I don't know. He has about 2000.

I open raise to 25 from the CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], he reraises me to 75 from the SB. I call. Hmm, a reraise, I put him squarely on AA - QQ, maybe JJ. That's about it. So yes, I know I'm crushed, but I have position and I'm positive I can get him to lay down an overpair on a scary board, plus I want to flop the nuts and take him for 1300 when he flops 2nd nuts.

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

He throws in a flock of green chips, I think 6 or 7. I flat call. I plan on taking this away from him on the turn assuming any diamond, J, 9, 8, T hit.

Turn 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Doh. He checks to me, what? If he had AA he would keep firing. KK, huh? I make it 300. He folds. I would have given up if he called/raised.

Eh? I suppose my question is what % of the time does he need to lay down for this to be correct? I'm not the best at crunching these numbers. I also think I'm writing this so one of you can talk some sense into me when I know I'm calling with a hand that is 70/30 at best.

I think I'm getting a little too cocky for my own good recently, only in this game because I feel so confident in the awful play of my opponents. If I sat in a different casino I'd play smart for a while. Turning into a LAG with position, no longer afraid to get the money in/nut peddler. Does everyone go through this at some point?

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Why not just check the turn? Of the range of hands you described, you are drawing dead to one and way ahead of all the others. Given your description, do you think he is going to pay you off with a worse hand on the turn? It seems like a check on the turn and a river value bet if checked to is a good play. The only hand you could move him off that you are ahead of is perhaps AK, but it doesn't seem like worth playing such a big pot as your turn line will create.