View Single Post
  #12  
Old 02-10-2005, 03:08 AM
WorldBeater WorldBeater is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 70
Default detailed response - no slowplay

[ QUOTE ]
can you explain why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Because if there is another big hand already out, you might get unlimited action from that hand by raising now. By only calling the flop bet, a scare card could hit or a card that beats your hand could hit on the next street.

There's a good chance that the next card could be a scare card for your hand or the opponents hand. You might get lucky, and someone might do the work for you by raising the pot. But then again that might not happen, and you will be left with the scenario below:
Your hand is vulnerable on the next card to be beaten or lose its flush value if:
A. the board pairs
B. another card of your suit hits (with only one card needed to complete the flush, your not nearly as likely to get action on your flush)

A quick estimate of how many times the board will pair, or another of your suit will hit on the turn, on average:
I look back at the original post and notice that the exact cards that flopped are not given. I will make a hypothetical flop to Ad 5d:

Flop: 7D 9D 3D.
There are 8 diamonds that could hit on the turn.
3 sevens, 3 nines, and 3 threes.
That's a total of 17 cards on the turn that will either pair the board or put out a four flush.
17 out of the 47 unseen cards in the deck = about 36% of the time.

Scenario 1 - It's possible another guy is in there slow playing the six high flush. What happens if a diamond hits on the turn? You are not likely to make much off your flush, is what will happen.

Scenario 2 - Here's an even worse scenario. The guy who led at the pot in this hand has a set, or 2 pair. The board pairs on the turn, giving him a full house. You have some serious guessing to do if you are faced with some big bets, depending on who is doing the betting.

Scenario 3 - You call the original flop bet. It is raised behind you and there are several callers, or just one caller. Then you make a big reraise. The question I have is the value of your smooth call in this situation. You could have raised the original bettor, and then been reraised by another in the hand, had you initiated the raising yourself. It's possible someone will do the work for you and bet your hand. If you are in a pot with habitual bluffers, then slow playing the hand may be a legitimate alternative.

I don't generally think its good poker to slow play monster hands that are vulnerable to scarecards / and being beaten by bigger hands. I have outlined several reasons why I think that is true.
Reply With Quote