Re: How sure do you have to be?
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Long time, first time. Philly, MS 10-20 live. Dream game, on a rush of a lifetime and playing it well. +45 BB in 7-8 hours. New young kid sits down, after a 3 or 4 rounds its obvious hes the only other person at the table that can tie their shoes without assistance. I've watched him closely in several hands and made strangely good reads every time. Nobody else matters...
I'm UTG with 77 and limp expecting limp-a-thon. All 5 behind me limp along to kid on button who raises. I immediately put him on QQ-AA, nothing less (I won't go into details, but I'm decently sure he's not just being creative).
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there are a lot more hands he should be raising with here than AA-QQ without "being creative"
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Blinds call, everybody else along.
Flop QTT, rainbow.
I'm looking at him as his eyes immediately dart to the TV when he sees this flop, I'm thinking QQ, almost no way Tx. Checks around to him, he gives the classic woe-is-me theirs a pair on the board and I don't like it look, then checks. Now I'm sure.
Turn.... 7.....crap
I check, around to him, he bets, SB calls quick (theres one of the tens) I raise. He hems and haws, says "I don't believe you have the ten, reraise." Wow...SAG quality. SB folds.
Now my question. How sure do I have to be to fold this? I'm pretty sure I'm right, but jesus, how can I let it go? Should I call and lead out and wait for the fireworks? Reraise and watch them now?
PS, don't comment on the PF limp. I don't care. Results tomorrow....
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i'll comment on the preflop limp...its not optional...and not close...you must limp or raise that...limppreferably.
on the turn you do anything but FOLD!!! he could easily check KK or AA along with QQ...but all in all i agree its quite likely he has QQ given his tv darting eyes and demeanor...maybe even TT...
i just dont let boats go to this stuff...its a mistake, sue me and im not a perfect player but we're seeing a showdown...
-Barron
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