[Buzz]

Steve - My thinking might be too conservative here. I was thinking Hero had no decent shot at high. However, in view of my sims results today (some of which I'll show below), maybe he does.

Giving Seat #10 A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], making the flop
K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], giving players in the other seats random hands, and having them see the showdown, here are the simulation results for number of wins in 10000 runs:
Seat #10 five handed:
• 145 high .... 978 low .... 993 scoop
Seat #10 six handed:
• 130 high .... 996 low .... 701 scoop

Seat #10 doesn't do as well with this hand and flop as the other seats do with random hands and this flop. That's why you need those extra bets in the pot on the first betting round to justify continuing to a bet on the second betting round.

Yeah, I know Hero is starting out ten handed and there was some hand selection that occurred before the flop to cut the field down to five handed for the flop. But I'm thinking it's a crap shoot for high anyway. Well... people are a bit more likely to play hands with kings. But sixes and jacks? They're not as desirable as aces for sure, and I think wheel cards, kings and queens are next favorites after aces. Of course people aren't just plying individual cards, but the various combinations they like are more likely to have aces, and then wheel cards, and then kings and queens .... (and there's some overlapping). At any rate, bottom line, I'm thinking that in terms of high hands, maybe simulating five opponents is close to playing four opponents.

Not much there, big gaps in that reasoning, but against five opponents (six handed sims) seat ten does:
• scoop 38%
• win high 7%
• win low 55%.

The point is, in the five and six player sims, seat ten does more than just win for low.

The obvious problem is it's pretty hard to take any heat after the flop with a pair of jacks (middle pair). Then without a low card on the turn, you're gone in real life although in the sims you're still alive. Finally, unless low is enabled on the river, it's pretty hard to play the hand. But if low does come in, the sims show the hand scooping more often than it would with just with the low straight. My guess is that if low does come in, (1) the hand has to make two pair on the river (which also gives it low, assuming the turn was a four, five, seven, or eight), or (2) the hand makes the six high straight. But between the six high straight and two pair, two pair, at 144/990, is nine times less likely than the straight, at 16/990.

At any rate, it's hard to figure, but I now believe I need to include some scoops in the calculation for implied pot odds. Including just 1/3 scoops (there are actually more, about 3/8, in the simes) would reduce, at least by one and maybe by two, the number of opponents Hero would need chasing.

Hmm. Back to the drawing board on this one.

Buzz