Is Mike Caro right ?
In "Online Poker News" Mike Caro claims that it is better for a good tournament player to play a lot of short tournaments than to play a few long tournaments.
This seems intuitively right to me, but can it be expressed mathematically ?
I know i cannot do it, but i will try to pose a problem:
Assume I have a 40% chance of getting in the money in a 10+1 Paradise single table tournament, giving me an expectation of $9 pr. tournament. (Not far from my actual results, when I played them).
I now am given the choice of either participating in ten such tournament or one 100+10 tournament that takes ten times as long. My probability of ending in the money in the long tournament is the same as in the short tournament.
Is it right that my expectation is $90 in both instances ?
But that my probability of landing somewhere near my expectation is bigger in the short tournaments ?
What is my probability of getting a profit in the short tournaments ?
Feel free to make other assumptions to better illustrate Mike Caros points.
Kim
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