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Old 02-04-2005, 03:11 PM
binions binions is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
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Default Re: What is the probability that AA beats 66, given that a 6 will flop

[ QUOTE ]
Well if a 6 flops (and I'm assuming an A doesn't flop?), the only way AA wins is:

- A on turn or river
- runner-runner flush
- runner-runner straight

(unless, of course, the 66 fills up or quads up).

(All numbers below from twodimes.net )

The "best" board for AA vs a set of 6's might be something like:

6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] vs A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

AA is about 35.6% to outdraw on this board.


Slightly more common will be boards which provide AA with only backdoor draws):

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

AA draws out about 14.3% of the time here.


The overwhelming majority of the time, however (rainbow drawless board), AA will be drawing to 2 outs:

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

AA outdraws less than 9% of the time here.


If you want something more exact, you'd have to calculate the relative probability of the above "flop types" (plus freakish boards like 6QQQQ) and I don't know how to do that (or if any online resources exist to let you do that type of analysis). Best guess, AA average pot equity with a 6 on the board is probably 9-10% (i.e. slightly higher than the most common "worst case").


Does this help?

Tom

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes you will have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

And the board will be 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Here, against a set of 6s, you will have 4 outs twice - 17.2%
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