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Well if a 6 flops (and I'm assuming an A
doesn't flop?), the only way AA wins is:
- A on turn or river
- runner-runner flush
- runner-runner straight
(unless, of course, the 66 fills up or quads up).
(All numbers below from
twodimes.net )
The "best" board for AA vs a set of 6's might be something like:
6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] vs A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
AA is about 35.6% to outdraw on this board.
Slightly more common will be boards which provide AA with only backdoor draws):
Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
AA draws out about 14.3% of the time here.
The overwhelming majority of the time, however (rainbow drawless board), AA will be drawing to 2 outs:
Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
AA outdraws less than 9% of the time here.
If you want something more exact, you'd have to calculate the relative probability of the above "flop types" (plus freakish boards like 6QQQQ) and I don't know how to do that (or if any online resources exist to let you do that type of analysis). Best guess, AA average pot equity with a 6 on the board is probably 9-10% (i.e. slightly higher than the most common "worst case").
Does this help?
Tom
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Sometimes you will have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
And the board will be 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Here, against a set of 6s, you will have 4 outs twice - 17.2%