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Old 02-04-2005, 12:01 PM
Brom Brom is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Ontario
Posts: 2
Default Re: 15 30 Live hand...

Your play up until the turn looks pretty standard. I have a problem with your turn play though. You describe the villain as loose passive which presents a two-fold problem here.
First off he is unlikely to be betting and 3-betting on this flop with just a flush draw while out of position due to his passive nature. That narrows his range of hands to a real holding, and more than likely at LEAST top pair.
So the second problem is what is his minimum holding here. Assuming at least a king in his hand you have to figure his kicker beat yours. If he has K9 then he has two pair and if he has better than K9 he has you outkicked. I can't really see too many players limping in with K8 or worse here UTG.

You did pick up the club draw on the turn which is nice. However, if he does have either of a flush draw (unlikely) or simply a king with a good kicker, then he won't be laying down to your turn raise probably. This means that you would have to be making it for value. You are borderline on the odds for that I think (it's late and I don't want to count bets right now).

Now say you do hit your two pair or flush on the river. He will more than likely check to you on the river due to the turn strength you showed and you will collect one more bet probably for a total of 3 big ones on the turn and river. If you had simply called behind on the turn, he would probably bet the river even if you hit and you can raise him for the same 3 bets. The difference is that you open yourself up to a turn reraise by him if he has a huge hand like a set, and you may even call the river bet afterwards for a total of 4 bets lost.

The only way your turn raise is good is if he is indeed on the flush draw and you can charge him the maximum. My guess is he had KQ or maybe a set, although I doubt the set due to his river check. If you can read him well enough to put him on the flush draw, then bravo - well played. If not, then just call the turn.
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