[SpeakEasy]

I folded. He later confirmed only that he did not have a straight flush on the flop; he didn’t disclose what he actually had.

My analysis was much like BluffThis explained above. After a good think, my estimates were:

1. 65% chance he had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

2. 25% chance he had the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], kicker non-heart.

3. 10% chance he had an overpair with no heart, from AA down to possibly 99. In this case, his all-in bet would have been designed to push me off what he assumed to be a hand holding one large heart. However, this could have been accomplished with a smaller raise.

Why did I assign such a large probability to a made Ace-high flush? Primarily because his all-in re-raise seemed to confirm that his modest bet on the flop looked to be designed to induce exactly the size of bet that I made. My raise was made with the assumption that he had an overpair and was testing the waters with $25, possibly with a large heart (#2 below). I just didn’t see him moving all-in without the made flush, given past play at this table. I’d watched him previously fold on the flop when it appeared he was behind, and bet when he was ahead. It occurred to me that this is how I would likely play the hand if I had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

The pre-flop raise to $15 (3xBB) didn’t tell me much more than he wanted to build the pot. He knew that all 5 limpers would call this bet, and its consistent with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and something like J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], making all of the scenarios above a possibility.

This hand still bugs me because he may have pushed me off the best hand -- I'd be very happy to call if I knew I was ahead. Damn, I wish there were hole-cams on hands like this.