Re: Flop Side Bets
"Player in 7 seat bet player in 4 seat that an Ace, Jack or two would come on the flop. Player in 4 seat figured he was getting 4-1 that and Ace, Jack or, Two wouldn't come on this even money bet."
Seat 4 has a thing or two to learn. He's getting hustled. If the bet were "An A, J or 2 will come in ONE DRAW OF A CARD," then the p success would be 12/52, or 23%. But that's not the bet.
This is another case where it's easier to calculate the probability of failure on each trial, then take the difference between it and 1.
p (failure, card 1): 40/52
p (failure, card 2): 39/51
p (failure, card 3): 38/50
Multiply the three fractions together to get the probability of failure all three times, and you get p (total failure)=.447.
Thus, p (success at least once) is 1-.447, or .553. On even money action, Seat 7 should make this bet on as many flops as possible.
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