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Old 01-28-2005, 11:28 AM
Nick Royale Nick Royale is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 270
Default Re: FPS or appropriate flop smoothcall?

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If raised on the turn, it would cost me 2BB to see a showdown so I would be getting about 5-1. Counting the times villian has two pair (which I am getting odds to draw against) I think this is an okay calldown.

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This is the way to reason (quite hard to do it on the fly though...):

Looking at his numbers, these are his capping hands: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK. (he'll never flop 2 pair here)

Counting numbers of possible hands (seeing the flop):
AA: 1
KK: 3
QQ: 3
JJ: 6
AK: 6

So, what hands will he check/raise the turn with? AA, AK and QQ (if he's not bluffing which he could be doing. Since you appeard weak on the flop he could bluff KK). So, you're not ahead of any of these hands, but you'll split to AK.

Hands you'll split against: 6 (AK)
Hands you'll be drawing dead to: 4 (AA+QQ)

If you call down from the turn you'll lose 2BB 40% of the times and win 4.75BB 60% of the times. Which makes it an easy calldown.

There are some aspects this calculation neglects (won't make a big difference):
-He might have capped with another hand
-He might bluff the turn
-He is more likely to go for a turn check/raise with a set than with TPTK.

A thing that's important is that you have enough hands on the opponents in your PT database to read his preflop capping hands. (if the sample is to small it could be misguiding)

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On the river, I would have probably called a raise as well, getting ~13-1 from the pot.

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Calling the river getting 1:13 is easy.
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