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Old 01-26-2005, 02:11 PM
Reef Reef is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Spokompton
Posts: 551
Default Re: Advanced Sticky Whoring: How to calculate your target goal

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So If my casino whoring BR is $1000, my target goal is $428. Playing BJ Switch what is the bestt approach to reach that goal. What approach do I take if I reach that goal before meeting the WR?

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note: authored by Izverg
As an example, let's evaluate a 50% reload offer that USA casino likes to send out (one of the worst spammers out there):

Offer: 300/150/3600 deposit/bonus/wr

On a $10K bankroll I set the target at 150+sqrt(10,000*150)/2 = $760.

I start with $450, so probability of bust is 1-450/760=0.4, and EV=$150*0.4=$60. The wagering requirements are still almost irrelevant for EV ($3600*0.0005=$2).

In general, EV=1-(B+D)/X.

I am going to play blackjack switch, and I need to get from $450 to $760. I don't want to ever overshoot my target, because then I am taking more risk than I decided to take. So no big bets for me at the start. I start betting maybe $15 on each hand, and increase or even decrease the bet size as the situation changes. If, for example, I have only $1000 of WR left, and I am at $300, I will at this point be betting $60 on each hand (I never bet more than 1/5 on each hand in BJ switch).

If I have $30 left, I usually head to the Video Poker and try to win and double/double/double (hasn't worked ever yet).

To finish this story, I never take this deal, because the EV is too low for the time it will take me to play it, and it is borderline as far as the risk/reward is concerned. 100% stickies are usually ok though.

edit: I believe Izverg's EV was miscalculated
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