Re: A few probabilities, simulations and other mathematics.
[ QUOTE ]
Any comments? Glaring errors?
[/ QUOTE ]
Couple comments = unless you're in a game of fish, no way do the jacks call that fall. I wouldn't play Js against Ks, and I certainly would play against Kings and someone who has called a raise from kings.
I am convinced that the raise is profitable assuming you know that the bring-in will fold. I love heads up. Heads up you can win many hands with two small pairs. Multi-way you really cant. Although your calculation shows the raise to be a losing play, if think its not quite right because it doesn't take into account those times when I fold before showdown (any open pair, apparent flushes, etc). It also doesn't take into account that I will fold the river if I didn't improve my pair.
I don't know how these factors can be incorporated into a calculation. I just know that there are tons of times where I fold before showdown when I'm chasin with a medium pair after having reraised to narrow the field. And I am a winning player, so it can't be that bad I guess.
|