[AleoMagus]

You are assuming the the posters on this board do not understand statistics, when in fact, you might be surprised how intimate a knowledge they have of it's real meaning.

First of all, while 200 SNGs may not be a small sample when calculating something like winning confidence, it is very small when trying to approximate what you describe in this statement

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I really question all the posters on here that believe 200 SNGs is a blip and may not represent your true capability.

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Ok, lets examine a typical SNG player after he has played 200 SNGs. Lets assume he has so far acheived a ROI of 25% and that his SD is 1.7 buy-ins. So, at 50+5, this would give him a profit per tourney of $13.75 and a SD of $93.5.

What about his 'true capability' and what stats can tell us?

well, he can be 98% confident that he is a winning player, but just what kind of winning player? well, after this many tourneys, he can be 95% confident of a profit per tourney of $1 to $26 per tourney!

This means after 200 SNGs, he might have an ROI of anywhere from 1% to 47%! If that is what you define as a good representation of 'true capability' then fine. whatever.

Your sample of 43 is even more subject to statistical fallacy.

You have been running well. If you do not think that you have been, you are seriously in for dissapointment. I have tried to figure how you could be getting $30 per SNG with only a $76 SD and to me, it can only mean a huge and unsustainable ROI.

Sure, your stats tell you that you can be very confident that you are a winning player, but make no mistake, that is all that they are telling you. Do not be surprised if after 200, you are winning significantly less.

The worst part of doing these stats with a huge (unsustainable) ROI, is that you need to weigh in other's experiences when approximating in your own mind if you are actually equally likely to be earning $7 as $54. This is to say that there is a very small chance that you are earning even as much as you currently think that you are.


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Take a statistics class

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comments like this... sheesh

Regards
Brad S

PS - I'm still very interested in what stakes you ahve been playing to get those numbers.