[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
So you don't like the short and sweet huh? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

It was a $33 on PokerRoom. PokerRoom don't provide hand history by email and I didn't save the hand...but if 2+2 asks 2+2 receives. So after a dig through my cache I found it:

Seat 1: anfield69 ($2,060 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero [7D,7H] ($1,190 in chips)
Seat 4: Bokenwolves ($2,807 in chips)
Seat 5: yahboohoo ($3,896 in chips)
Seat 6: marlowbeach ($1,075 in chips)
Seat 7: TheKid59 ($3,612 in chips)
Seat 10: Camjam ($360 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
marlowbeach posts blind ($50), TheKid59 posts blind ($100).

PRE-FLOP
Camjam folds, anfield69 folds, Hero bets $325, Bokenwolves folds, yahboohoo folds, marlowbeach folds, TheKid59 calls $225.

FLOP [board cards 2S,JD,5S ]
TheKid59 bets $865, Hero ?

As you can see I was relativly short stacked and approaching the blind which will either be 100 or more likely 150. Sometimes I will muck 77 in this situation, sometimes raise. I don't think I would ever limp at this stage.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the raise fine.

On the flop...well, let's see. The pot's laying you a great price, 1.8:1...so even if you think he probably has you beaten it's worth sorting out the various possibilities before making a decision.

What are the hands he could have here?

The most obvious answer is that he has a flush draw. It would make perfect sense for him to make this agressive semi-bluff, as even if you call, the pot is giving him the right price most of the time. He would make this play whether or not he was tricky. I'd say there's an excellent chance he has a flush draw, maybe as high as 30-40%. Also, if he has a flush draw, it's at least even money that he has only 3 non-flush outs against you.

Notice that if he is indeed on a flush draw, it's very unlikely that he also has a pair of Jacks. Why? Well, top pair + flush draw is such a strong hand that he would want to give you a chance to bet instead of shutting you out. He would only make this play if he was tricky, and then only if he thought you would oversimplify and put him on "flush draw."

Two pair is very unlikely because of the preflop action and the texture of the flop, and I think he would only play it this way about half the time. People overvalue 2 pair & like to trap with it...but he may not be one of those people, and the flush draw may scare him.

He may have a set that he's betting this way to protect against the flush draw or represent a flush draw himself if he thinks you'll read him for that. I don't think this is too likely. He would probably re-raise preflop with JJ. He might well fold 22 and even 55 to your preflop raise, although I'm guessing he'll call often with those hands. Also, the two strong urges to check to the PF raiser & to slowplay a set argue against the likelihood of him having such a holding.

He could be bluffing with overcards, gambling that you raised with AK/AQ/AT/Axs/KQ/KT, or perhaps a small pair that you would also fold. Hard to say how likely this is without knowing more about the player, and what he thinks about you. What kinds of hands does he think you're raising with preflop? What kinds of hands does he think you'll call with on the flop? Has he been playing agressively on the flop? Still, I think there's got to be at least a 10-15% chance that he's doing just that.

He could be betting a bare pair of Jacks, but I doubt it...it makes more sense for him to check & call your likely all-in with that hand. However, if he thinks you're a passive flop player who's likely to check behind with overcards or a flush draw, then it's more likely that he has a pair of Jacks.

He could have a big pair, I suppose, if he's tricky like that. Do you think he's the kind of player who might flat-call closing the action preflop with AA/KK? QQ seems very unlikely to me; who wouldn't re-raise with it preflop?

A bigger underpair (TT-77) is a worrisome possibility. He might well play it this way both preflop and postflop.

On the balance, I think you're getting a good enough price to call here....not sure though.