Re: SnG Total winnings and ROI confidence intervals--Monte Carlo estimates
I don't exactly understand these results-- and perhaps the problem I have is with your Null Hypothesis...
If I'm interpreting it correctly, after 1000 SNGs, if your ROI is -0.011 , you are 95% confident that you are an above average player?
I do understand that given your definition of "average player", it makes sense. But obviously there is a problem--- there is no utility in declaring yourself 95% confident that you are above average if you are down 12 buyins after 1000 SNGs....
That said, I think that using the Monte Carlo method is a an appropriate way of calculating confidence intervals.
I think though, that you can artificially define "above average" by picking a long-term average result, and then extrapolating backwards.
For example-- define "above average" as being UP 10 buy-ins after 1000 SNGs. Then calculate a linear distribution of results that would result in that definition. Then run your simulation.
Just my thoughts....
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