Re: Steal attempt from UTG with 4.5xBB left
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If I fold I probably make the money but with only 3xBB and no real power to steal blinds - or am I incorrect in making this assumption?
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yes, it's true that it will be tough to steal blinds, especially b/c the bubble probably won't burst until you're somewhat out of position. so you'll have to get lucky and win a showdown or two to get a reasonable stack.
but if you steal here and then pay blinds, you'll only have 4.5x left anyway. you're still a long shot to make a significant amount of money. couple that with the fact that the blinds will go up soon and your 4.5x will become 3x.
AQ i might push, but KQ is not strong enough.
the hands you really don't want to see are QQ-AA, AK, AQ.
QQ, KK - 3 combos each
AA - 6
AK, AQ - 12 each
total is 36 combos. 36 / 1326 = 2.7%, so each opponent has a 2.7% chance of having you dominated. as a rough estimate, that means there's about a 21% chance that you're going to be in very bad shape. (and some chance you'll be called by a 99-type hand, which is still pretty bad this close to the money).
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