[jcm4ccc]

OK, if we take Kd and Qd out of the deck, there are 1250 possible hands. KdQd is .6340040 against a random hand. We need to take out the possibility of JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQ, and AK.

Total possibility: .6340040 * 1250 = 792.505

Minus:
JJ: .46 * 6 = 2.76
QQ: .35 * 3 = 1.05
KK .13 * 3 = .39
AA .18 * 6 = 1.08
AKo .30 * 9 = 2.70
AKs .28 * 3 = 0.84
AQo .30 * 9 = 2.70
AQs .28 * 3 = 0.84

792.505 – (2.76 + 1.05 + .39 + 1.08 + 2.70 + 0.84 + 2.70 + 0.84) = 780.145

Total possible hands = 1250 – (6 + 3 + 3 + 6 + 9 + 3 + 9 + 3) = 1208

780.145/1208 = .6458 against the hands left (interesting that it barely improves your odds against a random hand to take those hands out)


If you call:

You will win .6458 * .70 = .452 * 4500 = $2034
You will take 2nd .6458 * .20 = .129 * 2500 = $322.50
You will take 3rd .6458 * .10 = .065 * 1800 = $117
You will lose .354 * 0 = $0

Total Expected Value: $2473.50

If you fold:

You will win .30 * 4500 = $1350
You will take 2nd: .30 * 2500 = $750
You will take 3rd: .15 * 1800 = $270
You will take 4th .25 * 1200 = $300

Total Expected Value: $2670


So you have a higher expected value if you fold.

I have a question for you. How do you pronounce Gigabet. Is it:

A) Giggabet
B) Jiggabet
C) Jijjabet
D) Gidget