Re: Question of expected value on the bubble in Step 5 STT
Come on Giga, did you ask people to do your math homework for you in high school?? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
I'll oblige, but for simplicity's sake, I'm ignoring the "not AA-JJ, AK, AQ thing", and assigning the button any two cards.
KQs vs. two random cards = 0.634 chance to win.
Since you gave those "confidence statistics", I'll use them, and buy-in, blinds, and stack sizes are irrelevant.
If you call and win:
1st - 70%
2nd - 20%
3rd - 10%
4th - 0%
5th - 0%
If you call and lose:
5th = 100%
If you call: (0.634)[(.7)($4500)+(.2)($2500)+(.1)($1800)] + (0.366)($0) = <font color="red">$2428.22</font>
If you fold:
1st - 30%
2nd - 30%
3rd - 15%
4th - 25%
5th - 0%
If you fold: (.3)($4500)+(.3)($2500)+(.15)($1800)+(.25)($1200) = <font color="red">$2670.00</font>
Damn close, and if you throw out the possibility of the big pairs and big aces, it's even closer to 50-50. Still a slight lean towards a fold though.
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