Probability and Politics
I discovered last night that the Taft-Hartley act about to be invoked by President Bush has been used 11 times in the past. It is generally accepted that in only three of these eleven instances was it successful in settling the labor dispute. The last time it was used is 25 years ago by then President Carter to settle a coal miners strike where it led to a successful labor agreement.
My question is what is the probability that it will be successful in this instance. Is it simply the ratio of 3 to 11 or is there more to it than that? For general information the act was established in 1947 and utilized 11 times in the first 30 years. I do not know which of the 11 invocations were successful other than the last one as mentioned above. Would this be pertinent information to the calculation?
Many Thanks in advance to all who respond.
Jimbo
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