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Old 01-16-2005, 12:34 AM
illiquid illiquid is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 13
Default Re: The 2+2 Hedge Fund

The only mediocrity that gets paid on Wall Street are the sell-side brokers -- in other words, salesmen. They are the equivalent of the casino's rake when it comes to the markets -- even the worst poker rooms can make money as long as there are people desperate enough to want to play the game. Mediocre traders on the other hand either eventually bust out (90%+ is likely) or survive and learn long enough to become superior traders. You really need to rise to the top in this game to stay alive, and there is no such thing as dropping down to a lower limit after a bad run in the markets.

I think the mindset of the successful poker player is very similar to that of the successful trader, so psychologically a student of poker may have an easier time dealing with certain aspects of trading; however, I think the structure of how the money flows between the players is very different in comparing the two. In poker, you can be a horrible player, but as long as you are the best player out of the 9 others at the table you play at everyday, you should be able to come out a consistent winner. In the markets, you are competing against the best and brightest 24/7, and it is extremely difficult in any time frame to find some edge to exploit systematically over an extended period of time. Successful systems that DO exist have ever-shortening life cycles, and you need to constantly re-adjust as markets change to achieve longevity. If you guys do manage to find something to exploit that hasn't been uncovered by the countless hedge funds already out there, by all means pour as much $ and as much leverage into it as fast as you can. But I think the parallels between poker and trading remain in the psychological realm and are limited to individual performance in relevance -- I don't believe there would be any special insight a group of poker players can bring to the street that hasn't already been gleaned and applied time and time again. Cool idea in any case, I'm sure the idea can be sold at least.
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