[JoshuaD]

there are 4 pairings that start with a blank hole, we're on one of those. 1 of those pairings will kill me, so it's 1/4 to die if I don't spin, and 1/3 to die if I do.

That said, what happens if I shoot a blank? No one's looking past step one (I haven't yet either, so we could end up w/ the same result, I just think it's interesting):

So my chance of getting blown away with

No Re-spin: 1/4 - 3/4 * 1/3 + 1/4 * 1/6 = 1/18
Re-Spin: 1/3 - 1/9 + 1/27 - 1/81... = 1/2


So you should definitely, definitely re-spin.

edit: this math is wrong, fixing.