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Old 01-14-2005, 12:44 PM
k000k k000k is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Milwaukee
Posts: 109
Default Re: The biggest fish

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The winrate statistic does not begin to be significant until at least 100k hands,

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The winrate statistic becomes significant long before 100k hands.

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Not 'significant', just kind of an ok idea. And not 'long' before either. At 20k hands, I could have a great run and win 200bb quickly, bumping up my rate by a whole BB/100. I've have +200bb runs in 1000 hands before. +200 BB moves your winrate .2bb/100 even at 100k hands.

You can see how many hands you need to meet specified confidence intervals using bisinbison's WinRate spreadsheet. At 20k hands, you can't even be 97% sure you're a winning player with a winrate of 3bb/100 and a normal SD! (normal for .5/1 anyway)
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