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Human behavior on a large scale can be predicted remarkably well with mathematic models. That's what economics does: it applies predictive models to human decision making. Our gut reaction is that it shouldn't work. "No stupid formula can tell ME what I'M going to decide!" Well, it turns out that Abraham Maslow and BF Skinner were smart MoFos, and it's really simple to predict how people will behave.

Irieguy

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This always reminds me of one of my favorite movie quotes:

A person is smart, people are stupid
- J, Men In Black

I have a few questions about your theoretical model, Irie:

- You have:
Player C beats Player B
Player B beats Player A

So Player C, after watching player B play player A, will want to play player A, but how does this establish that Player C beats player A?

Or are you saying that, per Occam's Razor, the simplest assumption is that there is a transitive property for poker players, and that a poker room where this transitive property applies accurately represents real poker rooms on the Internet?